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Return of the Doorbusters: Mastercard SpendingPulse Anticipates 10%* U.S. Retail Sales Growth Thanksgiving Week

Return of the Doorbusters: Mastercard SpendingPulse Anticipates 10%* U.S. Retail Sales Growth Thanksgiving Week
October retail sales grew 6.1%* year-over-year, marking a strong start to the holiday shopping season

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With holiday cheer in the air and shoppers returning to stores in force, U.S. retail sales during Thanksgiving Week are expected to grow 10.0% YOY and 12.2% YO2Y, excluding auto and gas. According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, which measures overall retail sales across all payment types including cash and check, e-commerce is also expected to experience sustained growth, increasing 7.1% YOY and 50.2% YO2Y for the week running.

“The consumer is strong and spending. With discounts in short supply, product innovation, availability and sustainability will be deciding factors for consumers eager to cross off their holiday shopping lists.”

With supply chain challenges straining product availability, elevated inflation and consumers creating unprecedented demand for goods, this holiday season is shaping up to be a seller’s market for retailers. Key Thanksgiving Week trends to watch include:

  • Deal hunters may be disappointed by limited discounts: Anticipated spending in key gift-giving categories such as Apparel (+56.0%), Electronics (+29.6%), and Jewelry (+39.7%) may lead retailers to discount strategically to manage product inventory and shipping constraints.
  • Black Friday rebounds in 2021: Total retail sales growth excluding auto and gas is expected to surpass 20% on Black Friday. Last year, Black Friday sales were suppressed due to limited in-store foot traffic. With the return of doorbusters driving consumers back in stores and holiday window shopping in full display, the day is expected to rebound with optimism.
  • Thankful for Thanksgiving store closures: Many big-box retailers, department stores and outlet malls will remain closed on Thanksgiving Day, providing consumers and employees with time to reconnect with family and friends – or shop the seasonal deals online. E-commerce sales Thanksgiving Week are anticipated to grow 50.2% compared to the same time in 2019.

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“Holiday lights are shining bright for retailers this year,” said Steve Sadove, senior advisor for Mastercard and former CEO and Chairman of Saks Incorporated. “The consumer is strong and spending. With discounts in short supply, product innovation, availability and sustainability will be deciding factors for consumers eager to cross off their holiday shopping lists.”

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[To share your insights with us, please write to sghosh@martechseries.com]

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