In March, five of the top 10 names for client net-buys were ETFs, not individual stocks
The Schwab Trading Activity Index™ (STAX) decreased to 56.04 in March, down from its score of 57.32 in February. The only index of its kind, the STAX is a proprietary, behavior-based index that analyzes retail investor stock positions and trading activity from Schwab’s millions of client accounts to illuminate what investors were actually doing and how they were positioned in the markets each month.
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Schwab clients turned slightly bearish in March as war began in Iran, sending the STAX down 2.23% from February’s long-term high. This represents the sharpest monthly decline for STAX since a 3.64% retreat last May when the market wrestled with President Trump’s first round of tariffs. However, the STAX reading of 56.04 is still the highest for any recent month other than February.
As markets retreated in March, Schwab clients appeared to spend less time trying to pick individual names, concentrating instead on diversified exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Five of the top 10 highest names in terms of client net-buys during March were ETFs, not individual stocks.
“Rather than attempting to identify individual standout opportunities, investors are adopting a broader, less concentrated strategy and are seeking to diversify risk through investments in more diversified exchange-traded funds,” said Joe Mazzola, Head Trading and Derivatives Strategist at Schwab. “We haven’t seen investors gravitate toward ETFs to the same extent on the net-buy list in some time. It’s likely the sudden increase in market volatility is pushing investors to broader products,” Mazzola explained.
The decline in STAX for March was the first drop for the index since December, after solid gains in January and February. The STAX fell every week of the March period, with the biggest drop in the final week when the S&P 500® Index reached eight-month lows on concerns that the war could last longer than initially expected and as oil prices stayed stubbornly near or above $100 per barrel.
Looking at broader trends among clients, long-term bullish sentiment among members of Gen-X—born between 1965 and 1980—fell slightly in March. Negative sentiment in Gen-Z—born between 1997 and 2012—declined even more, widening the gap between those groups as Gen Z remained the most bearish segment by age group and Gen X remained most bullish. Millennials and Baby Boomers also saw their STAX scores fall.
There was also a small dip in bullish sentiment among clients who identify themselves as “traders,” and a larger pullback in sentiment among those who identify as “non-traders.”
In March, the S&P 500 Index fell more than 7%, the steepest monthly drop for a STAX period since the S&P 500 Index fell more than 11% in September 2022. The only worse STAX period monthly performance for the S&P 500 since the decade began was during the first month of the pandemic in March 2020 when the index fell more than 13%.
Economic data in March played a secondary role amid the focus on oil, but the February nonfarm payrolls report released early that month pointed to continued economic worries that pre-dated the war, as job growth fell by 92,000. Also, the February Producer Price Index (PPI), rose far more than expected in February, indicating inflationary pressures even before crude oil staged its dramatic rally.
The Federal Reserve met in March and kept rates paused for the second meeting in a row following three rate cuts late last year that took the target fed funds range to between 3.5% and 3.75%.
From a sector point of view, March saw the best net-positive performance from Industrials, followed by Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and Consumer Staples. Other sectors with net-positive results included Real Estate and Health Care.
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