Hurricane Laura, the most intense hurricane to make landfall in the northwestern Gulf Coast since 1856, brings threat of further economic uncertainty to region
CoreLogic® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today announced updated residential and commercial wind and storm surge loss estimates for Hurricane Laura. According to this new data analysis, insured wind and storm surge losses for residential and commercial properties in Louisiana and Texas are estimated to be between $8 billion and $12 billion, with insured storm surge losses estimated to contribute less than $0.5 billion to this total.
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In addition to property damages, the ability to make loan payments can become compromised following a hurricane. Overall home mortgage delinquency rates (30 or more days past due, including those in foreclosure) in the Beaumont, Texas (9.3%) and Lake Charles, Louisiana (9.5%) metropolitan areas were already above the national rate (7.3%) based on the May 2020 CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights report. CoreLogic data has shown natural disasters cause a spike in mortgage delinquencies, which suggests Hurricane Laura will add to the economic hardship families are already experiencing during the pandemic.
As Hurricane Laura approached the coast, the storm’s center struck a more sparsely populated area of the Louisiana and Texas coast. “There is never a good place for a hurricane to make landfall. But this was the best possible outcome because it spared the major population centers of Houston and New Orleans,” said Curtis McDonald, meteorologist and senior product manager of CoreLogic.
The CoreLogic post-landfall estimates have been updated based on the August 27, 11 a.m. Eastern Standard Time National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory of the storm. The storm is not expected to pose an extreme flood risk as it moves east across the country. Wind and storm surge are likely to be the primary causes of property loss initially while tornado activity could occur as the storm progresses. The analysis includes residential homes and commercial properties, including contents and business interruption and does not include broader economic loss from the storm.
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Hurricane Laura weakened as it moved over land, which safeguarded some metropolitan areas from the full impact of a landfalling Category 4 hurricane. This is represented in the “Hurricane Laura Total Residential Properties Affected by Wind and/or Storm Surge by Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Category” table above as zero values. Certain metropolitan areas will experience multiple categories of storm intensities as properties closer to the coast are likely to experience stronger winds relative to the more inland properties.
Methodology
CoreLogic offers high-resolution location information solutions with a view of hazard and vulnerability consistent with the latest science for more realistic risk differentiation. The high-resolution storm surge modeling using 10m digital elevation model (DEM) and parcel-based geocoding precision from PxPoint facilitates this realistic view of risk. Residential structures of up to four units, including single-family homes, mobile homes, duplexes, manufactured homes and cabins (among other non-traditional home types) are included in this analysis. Multifamily residences are also included. This is not an indication that there will be no damage to other types of structures.
